Why Wednesday March 9th?

Why indeed? For several days, that was one of the big questions. For weeks, the party line from the Republicans was that they would not remove the collective bargaining language from the Budget Repair bill, since it was a key part of their fiscal plan, and likewise, they would not vote on it separately (though it would be legal for them to do so).  (See also: http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/02/fitzgerald-senate-wont-take-up.html)

And yet suddenly, with very little notice (possibly less than legally required), the Senate Republicans decided to separate out the non-fiscal sections regarding collective bargaining and Medicaid changes (as well as other things) and convene the Conference Committee. 

Why?

A very likely reason is that the Senate was scheduled to adjourn the next day, and not reconvene until April 5th, well after the various deadlines that Walker had set for when the refinancing of state debt needed to happen (it has now been determined by the LFB that this wouldn't need to happen until mid-April: http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/03/lfb-debt-restructuring-can-be-delayed.html).  http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/03/scott-fitzgerald-says-hes-exhausted.html explains, however, that the Senate can come back into special session during the recess.

It is possible that LFB's announcement of the mid-April deadline for debt refinancing ruined one of the covers that the Republicans had for the time pressure, and thus, they figured the game was up.  But that doesn't seem too likely.

Another thing that may have led to the sudden change in course was that Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald had a refreshingly honest moment during an interview when he admitted that it wasn't about the budget, it was about the bargaining: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/03/09/wisconsin-senate-leader-admits-union-busting-bill-is-about-defeating-obama/. Once said, especially once said on Fox, there is no way to take it back. And once *that* is out in the open, there's no point in pretending otherwise.

On March 9, Human Resources at my workplace sent us a copy of a memo sent by OSER to DOA along with some new FAQs, which, as I interpret it, basically say that until the bill passes, agreements will stand as they are. I don't think that was really what Walker was planning when he issued notice (on 2/11/11) that he was terminating our contracts effective 3/13/11)....www.uww.edu/adminaffairs/hr/budgetcbaprovscontinue.pdf

Several Republicans, including Senator Fitzgerald (Majority Leader) were reportedly getting death threats. On March 10, Fitzgerald released the text of one at http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/03/scott-fitzgerald-releases-text-of-death.html. Others were not released as they were under investigation. While someone was apprehended with regard to at least one of the threats, it is not clear whether this was a credible threat to Fitzgerald (if it was, it probably shouldn't have been released, among other things). It also isn't clear how death threats make it necessary to pass an unpopular bill as quickly as possible, using any means available.  

The Dem 14 didn't come back right away; they stated that they would remain in Illinois, or at least, in hiding, until the bill had passed the Assembly and been signed: It sounds like they suspected that this may have been a ruse to get them back into town to force a vote on the entire bill. 

One thing I have not paid too much attention to is polls. But I do know that as time went on, Walker's approval ratings were dropping (with many of those voting for him voicing regret), and that people were increasingly (depending on who was running the poll) supportive of the fight for collective bargaining. The Republicans tried very hard to cast the Dem 14 as a stunt, as immature, as refusing to do their jobs, but as that tactic failed, they may have felt that forcing the vote was the best way out of the situation. 


And, since I haven't yet linked to it, here are the differences between the original (as passed by JFC) version of the bill, and the bill that was voted on by the Senate: http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/03/comparison-of-lfb-memos.html.  Of course, there were some additional changes between the Senate vote and the Assembly vote (http://budget.wispolitics.com/2011/03/lfb-analysis-of-conference-committee.html), which will need to be worked out, probably in court.